The Government of Kenya has formally concluded its participation in the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA) Sugar Safeguard regime, which lapsed on 30th November 2025 after 24 years and 8 extensions. This exit marks the successful completion of a mandated reform cycle, as all strict benchmarks set by the COMESA Council of Ministers, including tariff-rate quotas, productivity investments, and sector restructuring, have been fully met.
The transition signifies a decisive move from a period of structured protection to a new phase defined by competitiveness, value addition, and regional integration, supported by a clear policy framework and a restructured, private-sector-led industry. This strategic exit reflects a position of strength, underpinned by significant sectoral recovery and growth. Under the guidance of the Kenya Sugar Board, the industry has seen sugarcane acreage expand by 19.4% to 289,631 hectares and sugar production grow by 76% to 815,454 metric tonnes since 2022, driven by improved farm productivity, factory efficiencies, and targeted interventions.
The policy focus has deliberately shifted from protection to competitiveness, embracing the global model where sugarcane serves as an industrial feedstock. Millers are being supported to diversify into by-products like ethanol and cogenerated electricity, which lowers the effective cost of sugar production, strengthens financial resilience, and insulates farmers from price volatility.
While domestic production has made substantial gains, current national demand stands at approximately 1.1 million metric tonnes annually. The full optimization of ongoing miller capacity expansion and factory rehabilitation will require time. Therefore, Kenya will implement a controlled and transparent import program from both COMESA and other approved regional sources.
This balanced framework is designed to ensure price stability for consumers and market certainty for producers without undermining local production, while accounting for population-driven demand growth and unpredictable regional surpluses. The Kenya Sugar Board will continue to manage these imports and coordinate the market, factoring in climatic variables that may temporarily affect output.
Future Outlook for Kenya Sugar Sector
According to the Kenya Sugar Board, the medium-term outlook for the sector is robust. As miller capacity expands and farm productivity improves, Kenya is projected to not only meet domestic demand but to attain and surpass self-sufficiency, positioning the country for surplus production and regional export competitiveness. The profound structural reforms, including the long-term leasing of former state-owned mills, have restored efficiency and accountability, providing a stable foundation for investment and growth.
The Government remains fully committed to safeguarding farmer livelihoods, supporting miller viability, and ensuring food security and price stability. The exit from the safeguard aligns with and reinforces this ongoing reform trajectory, providing greater certainty to the operating environment. The Kenya Sugar Board, under the Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock Development, will continue to provide strong regulatory oversight and farmer protection to ensure an orderly, fair, and sustainable industry within the COMESA Free Trade Area.
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