The Standard Bank Africa Trade Barometer (ATB) is a comprehensive trade index that was launched in 2022 to address the information vacuum in African trade data. The ATB is updated annually, and it provides a centric view of business conditions across 10 key markets in Africa which is Angola, Ghana, Kenya, Mozambique, Namibia, Nigeria, South Africa, Tanzania, Uganda, and Zambia.
According to Issue 5 of the ATB (March 2026), overall trade openness declined on average across the surveyed markets. While most exporters expect their volumes to rise in the future, current participation has eased due to significant currency and cost pressures.
Currency and Cost Pressures across countries
In Mozambique the exchange rate appeared stable, this was because of the central bank interventions such as increasing mandatory reserve requirements to 39.5%. This triggered severe liquidity shortages, leaving businesses unable to pay international suppliers and creating a reported foreign exchange backlog exceeding USD 700 million.
In Angola and Nigeria, currency depreciation was driven by declining oil production and foreign exchange imbalances making imports more expensive and foreign currency scarce. In Nigeria, this caused a shift toward local sourcing because importing goods became unaffordable for many businesses. For firms still relying on cash for trade, fluctuating exchange rates were cited by 48% of respondents as a major challenge, alongside security risks.
Corporate taxation remained a primary barrier, with 79% of surveyed firms identifying tax relief as the most critical measure for government support. In Zambia, the introduction of a 1% Minimum Alternative Tax on turnover and a doubling of the import surtax to 10% significantly increased the fiscal burden on diversified trade. Tanzania similarly doubled its Alternative Minimum Tax, while Uganda introduced a 1% Import Declaration Fee, which translated to an immediate increase in import costs.
Surveys from the Stanbic Bank Kenya PMI indicate that while inflationary pressures moderated at times, they frequently reaccelerated due to higher tax burdens, rising fuel prices, and increased material costs, which squeezed business margins.
The State of Openness in Trade
For the first time, Asian countries have overtaken African countries as the most preferred trading partners for surveyed businesses. China remains the primary source for 36% of all imports across the 10 markets, particularly in Tanzania, where 53% of importers source from China to support massive infrastructure projects like the Standard Gauge Railway.
“You will always find Chinese products in our countries because China subsidizes their manufacturers significantly.” Representative from the South African Department of Trade, Industry and Competitor
Engagement with North American partners has fallen to just 4%, driven by high shipping costs and new US tariffs ranging from 10% to 30%. Additionally, the expiration of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) in September 2025 has created uncertainty for exporters previously reliant on duty-free access.
For Kenya, the leading individual sources of imports are China (KES 56.7 billion), the United Arab Emirates (KES 26.1 billion), and India (KES 22.0 billion). While Southern Africa (28%) and Europe (26%) remain key partners, sourcing from the Middle East is rising, now accounting for 8% of imports as countries like South Africa and Zambia seek stable fuel and energy supplies.
Despite the preference for Asian inputs, intra-regional trade shows tangible progress, particularly in East Africa, which emerged as the strongest-performing subregion with a 10-percentage-point increase in export activity. Policy coordination is improving openness; notably, Kenya and Uganda agreed in August 2025 to reclassify bilateral trade as internal transfers rather than imports, eliminating discriminatory duties.
Awareness of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) has reached 50%, with milestone events like Namibia’s first salt shipment to Nigeria and Mozambique’s first dispatch to Kenya under the agreement in 2025.
Digital payment methods (EFTs, mobile money, and international transfers) now facilitate 78% of cross-border sales and 79% of purchases, facilitating trade openness. The operationalization of the Pan-African Payment and Settlement System (PAPSS) is a critical milestone, allowing businesses to settle transactions in local currencies and reducing the historic reliance on hard-currency intermediaries like the US Dollar or Euro.
Also read: NSE Market Report: Bourse on Bearish Note, NASI falls 0.3%
