In the month of June 2025, Kenya’s inflation print was recorded at 3.8%, unchanged from May 2025, and a decline of 80 basis points relative to June 2024. Core inflation was 3.0% in June 2025 – representing a growth of 20 basis points from May 2025, while non-core inflation was 6.2% in June 2025, up by 20 basis points month-on-month. In terms of the indices, the Core index and non-core index closed June 2025 at 129.47 and 211.47 compared to 128.97 and 209.35 in May 2025, respectively. The overall Consumer Price Index (CPI) however edged up by 70 basis points on a month-on-month basis to 145.58 in June 2025. Year-on-year, the index has surged by 5.35 points.
Drivers of Inflation in June 2025
Month-on-month analysis
According to the report released by the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics, Transport was the key driver of inflation on a month-on-month basis, growing by 0.7% in June 2025 as compared to May 2025. This was on account of a 1.6% increase in the cost of petrol. A 1.2% increase in the cost of personal vehicles, and a 1.0% increase in country bus fares.
There was some respite offered by the diesel constituent which recorded a decrease of 1.1% relative to May 2025. Worth noting is that the price per litre of diesel and petrol dropped by 5.7 PC and 6.4 PC respectively to sh. 163.89 and sh.178.19 in the same period (June/July pumping cycle), affording some relaxation in the overall transport division in the month-on-month review.
The only category that recorded a decline month-on-month in June 2025 was Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other fuels, printing a decline of 0.1%, and on a year-on-year basis, the category recorded a growth of 0.2%, which was the softest across all categories, followed by information and communication at 0.8%.
Year-on-year analysis
Year-on-year, food and non-alcoholic beverages, which takes up the bulk of the weighting at 32.9094% was the key driver, recording a growth of 6.6%, closely followed by the alcoholic beverages, tobacco and narcotics division at 5.2%. The Health division accounted for 3.7% year-on-year change, followed by clothing and footwear at 3.5%, education services at 2.9% and Furnishings, Household Equipment and Routine Household Maintenance at 2.8%. The least change was from the Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels division, which recorded a change of 0.2% in June 2025 relative to June 2024.
Impact of Declining Energy Prices on June 2025 inflation
Data from the Kenya National Bureau of statistics show that in June 2025, of the 19 selected commodities that were surveyed in the inflation analysis, 7 recorded a year-on-year decline, with all 6 energy-related commodities reporting declines year-on-year. The largest decline across all commodities was recorded on the price of kerosene, which declined by 9.7% per litre to KES 147.92.
Following closely was the price of 200kw of electricity, which went down by 8.2% to an average of KES 5,738.5 in June 2025 as compared to the same period last year. The price per litre of diesel and petrol dropped by 6.4% and 5.7% respectively to KES 178.19 and KES 163.89 in June 2025 relative to June 2024.
With all the 6 energy-related commodities recording a decline in the June 2025 period, this indicates that inflation remained tapered on account of the softening of energy prices in the period under review.
Also read: Mixed economic signals as Kenya’s inflation rise.
