Kenya’s trade deficit with China widened to a record KES 654.3 billion in 2025, representing a 19 percent increase from the previous year, according to data from the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS). The significant expansion of the imbalance was driven primarily by a sharp collapse in the states exports to China, which fell by 35.7 percent to KES 16.9 billion, marking the steepest annual decline in a decade. This deterioration in export performance occurred simultaneously with a continued surge in imports from China, which rose by 16.5 percent to reach an unprecedented KES 671.2 billion.
Drivers of Kenya’s Export Collapse
The collapse in exports has been attributed to two principal factors. First, the exhaustion of titanium ore deposits, which had previously ranked among Kenya’s top foreign exchange earners from China, removed a critical export commodity from the trade basket. Second, the government imposed a ban on macadamia exports in an effort to protect local quality standards and curb the export of immature nuts, unintentionally eliminating another significant export stream to the Chinese market. These supply-side constraints left Kenya with few alternative products capable of filling the void.
On the import side, the state continued to rely heavily on Chinese manufactured goods and industrial inputs. The KES 671.2 billion worth of imports consisted primarily of steel, electronics, industrial machinery, and fertilizer, products essential to Kenya’s construction, manufacturing, and agricultural sectors. According to records by the KNBS, China accounted for 24.2 percent of Kenya’s total imports but absorbed only 1.15 percent of Kenya’s total exports, underscoring the structural imbalance that has long characterized bilateral trade relations.
Currently, the state’s policymakers are actively exploring trade deal negotiations and export diversification strategies to address this widening gap. However, the immediate outlook suggests that without the discovery of new mineral deposits or the reopening of key agricultural export markets, reducing the deficit will require substantial policy intervention and investment in value-added production for the Chinese market.
